Sea Level Rise:

0m (0ft)

Year:

2100

Climate change is a myth: Ocean levels stay very near where they are today.

The broad consensus among climate scientists is that the emission of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and other gases) is causing the planet to warm. As we burn fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas, gasoline, jet fuel, etc.) we release carbon dioxide. Human activity also emits certain other gases (e.g. methane from raising cattle or from decomposing landfills). These "greenhouse gases" change the composition of the atmosphere, causing it to trap more heat (just like a glass greenhouse traps solar energy and stays warmer than the surrounding air.) Sea levels rise, due to the expansion of water as it gets warmer as well as the melting of glacial ice and other effects.

The best available scientific evidence shows that global warming is real and recent rapid changes are caused by human activity. While there are organized groups that deny the idea of global warming, no significant scientific bodies with national or international standing reject the basic findings about human-caused climate change. A few scientific bodies (for example the American Association of Petroleum Geologists) are neutral or noncommittal. With each passing year the evidence has become stronger rather than weaker.

A large number of national and international scientific bodies support the finding that global warming is real and driven by human activity.

A good general review of global warming with a large number of links to other references is here.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conducts a massive worldwide effort involving a huge number of technical experts to synthesize and consolidate our current scientific knowledge about climate change. The most recent IPCC assessment is summarized here.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has answers to some frequent questions about global warming.

Year:

2100

Optimistic (IPCC Scenario B1): Economic and population growth is tempered by increased attention to environmental issues and introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. However there is no global initiative to dramatically cut greenhouse gases.

This sea level rise scenario is based on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) scenario B1. The broad consensus among climate scientists is that the emission of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and other gases) is causing the planet to warm. As we burn fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas, gasoline, jet fuel, etc.) we release carbon dioxide. Human activity also emits certain other gases (e.g. methane from raising cattle or from decomposing landfills). These "greenhouse gases" change the composition of the atmosphere, causing it to trap more heat (just like a glass greenhouse traps solar energy and stays warmer than the surrounding air.) Sea levels rise, due to the expansion of water as it gets warmer as well as the melting of glacial ice and other effects.

In this scenario the world moves in a more ecologically friendly way, but we do not commit to major global initiatives for large cutbacks in greenhouse gas emissions.

Global temperatures rise by about 1.8 °C, and the average sea level rise is .28m (0.9 feet - mid-range of estimates.)

It is important to note that even if we started today to make large cuts in our greenhouse gas emissions, we have already changed the atmosphere, and some continued warming and sea level rise is now inevitable no matter what we do. But there is still time to limit the impacts to a manageable level.

A large number of national and international scientific bodies support the finding that global warming is real and driven by human activity.

A good general review of global warming with a large number of links to other references is here.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conducts a massive worldwide effort involving a huge number of technical experts to synthesize and consolidate our current scientific knowledge about climate change. The most recent IPCC assessment is summarized here.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has answers to some frequent questions about global warming.

Year:

2100

Business as usual (IPCC Scenario A1Fl): Today's focus on rapid economic growth and heavy use of fossil fuels continues leading to significant global warming.

This sea level rise scenario is based on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) scenario A1Fl. In this scenario the world continues more or less on its current path. Rapid economic growth and dependence on fossil fuels leads to significant warming and a larger sea level rise.

Global temperatures rise by about 4°C, and the average sea level rise is .43m (1.4 feet - mid-range of estimates.)

The broad consensus among climate scientists is that the emission of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and other gases) is causing the planet to warm. As we burn fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas, gasoline, jet fuel, etc.) we release carbon dioxide. Human activity also emits certain other gases (e.g. methane from raising cattle or from decomposing landfills). These "greenhouse gases" change the composition of the atmosphere, causing it to trap more heat (just like a glass greenhouse traps solar energy and stays warmer than the surrounding air.) Sea levels rise, due to the expansion of water as it gets warmer as well as the melting of glacialice and other effects.

Note that these projections are for the year 2100, but further warming could occur beyond that time, and sea levels would also continue to rise.

A large number of national and international scientific bodies support the finding that global warming is real and driven by human activity.

A good general review of global warming with a large number of links to other references is here.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conducts a massive worldwide effort involving a huge number of technical experts to synthesize and consolidate our current scientific knowledge about climate change. The most recent IPCC assessment is summarized here.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has answers to some frequent questions about global warming.

Year:

Beyond 2100?

Greenland ice sheet disintegrates: Greenhouse gas and warming trends continue. The ice covering Greenland eventually melts over a few thousand years. Some scientists believe that runaway feedback effects could unlock the Greenland ice, leading to far more rapid disintegration and dramatic sea level rise. While this might take thousands of years, there is a chance it could be much faster.

The permanent Greenland ice sheet covers almost 700,000 square miles - 1,500 miles north to south and 700 miles east to west at the widest point. The ice sheet is typically over a mile thick. That's 750,000,000,000,000 gallons of water, or 2.85m cubic km. (Estimates vary a bit.) If that much water were dumped into the ocean, sea levels would rise 7.2m (23.6 feet).

If we continue with current global warming trends, global temperatures will rise by around 4°C by the end of this century, and sea levels will rise 10 to 23 inches, due to expansion of sea water as the oceans warm, increased ice melt runoff from all over the world and other causes, but not counting major ice sheet disintegration. For this scenario we take the mid-range rise for all other causes (the same as our Moderate case) and add the Greenland ice melt estimate giving a total of about 7.6m (25 feet).

Scientists estimate that at these global warming levels, the Greenland ice sheet will eventually disappear. How long is complicated and uncertain to calculate. If the ice melts slowly and steadily, it will take thousands of years. But more rapid events can happen. For example, glaciers that were locked to the ground can suddenly start surging forward when sea water at their outlets rises or warms, or lubricating water percolates down to the glacier base. Researchers warn that once temperatures reach a certain level, unpredictable events involving rapid feedback might happen on a time scale of decades. We don't know, but if we keep warming the planet, we should study it further. A quick collapse (in a century or so) would be a catastrophe.

You should also review the references listed for the Moderate and Significant sea level cases.

This article has an extensive general discussion of the Greenland ice sheet and links to many further references.

This technical article discusses ways in which ice sheet disintegration can suddenly accelerate due to various positive feedback loops.

A report just published in Nature shows that Antarctic and Greenland ice is thinning faster than previously believed.

Year:

Beyond 2100?

Greenland and West Antarctic ice disintegrate: If warming trends continue, the ice covering Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could eventually disappear over a few thousand years. Some scientists believe that runaway feedback effects could lead to far more rapid collapse and a dramatic sea level rise in a much shorter time. Could take thousands of years; a chance it could be much faster.

As we described in the Severe case (Greenland Ice Sheet Disintegrates), if current warming trends continue, global temperatures will rise by around °C by the end of this century, leading to sea level rises and the possibility of major ice sheet disintegration. For this scenario we assume not only that Greenland ice disappears but also that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) disintegrates. If WAIS collapses the best estimate is that global sea levels would increase by another 3.3m. The total sea level rise for this combination would be approximately 11m (36 feet.)

The ice covering Greenland is quite likely to eventually disappear at these warming levels, the question being "how long?" Antarctic ice is subject to greater uncertainties, such as whether snowfall increases might counteract melting, especially in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. However WAIS is thought to be vulnerable because much of it is grounded on land that is below sea level. If it begins to disintegrate, there could be rapid incursions of sea water, melting, lifting, and breaking up the ice. The probability that both Greenland and WAIS would collapse quickly (in a century or two) seems small. But we don't know, and we should study it further, since a quick collapse would be an extreme catastrophe.

See also the references listed for the Significant and Severe sea level cases.

This article has an extensive general discussion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and links to many further references.

A recent best estimate of how much a WAIS collapse might raise sea levels.

This technical article discusses ways in which ice sheet disintegration can suddenly accelerate due to various positive feedback loops.

A report just published in Nature shows that Antarctic and Greenland ice is thinning faster than previously believed.

FACT: A single hamburger from a typical fast food restaurant requires 2,400 liters of water to produce. Zerofootprint estimates that, on average, an electric train emits approximately 30% less greenhouse gas emissions than a diesel train in Canada. FACT: Plastic production from recycled materials uses only 30% of the energy required to make plastic from virgin materials. FACT: Recycled paper production uses, on average, 64% less energy and uses 58% less water than virgin paper. FACT: A single cup of coffee requires 140 liters of water to produce. FACT: Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the warmest years in global surface temperature since 1850. FACT: A laser-printer sitting idle consumes the same amount of energy as the average consumption of a mini-freezer! FACT: The rate of warming averaged over the last 50 years is nearly twice that for the last 100 years. FACT: The total 20th century rise in sea level is estimated to be 0.17 meters. This is greater than the sea level rise over the previous 2,000 years! FACT: 1 apple requires 70 liters of water to get to the store. 1 glass of apple juice requires 140 liters! FACT: 1 kg of barley takes 1300 liters of water to produce! FACT: One pint of beer requires 75 liters of water to make! FACT: 2700 liters of water go into the production of 1 cotton shirt. FACT: 200 liters of water were required to produce the egg you eat for breakfast. FACT: 1,500 liters of water is required to produce 1 kg of sugar! FACT: One leaky faucet can waste 3000 gallons of water a year! FACT: Up to 10% of a home's energy use comes from "phantom" loads, appliances like phone chargers that require energy even if not in use! FACT: A load in the dishwasher will cost you 33 cents to do during peak period, but just 15 cents if you do it overnight or on weekends! FACT: It takes 70% less energy to produce a ton of paper from recycled paper than from trees. FACT: The meat and dairy industry produces 18% of global climate-changing emissions! FACT: Biodiesel is 54% better than Ethanol in terms of energy required to create it and has lower carbon emissions. FACT: Printing an 8 page newsletter will consume more than 50 liters (or 13 gallons) of water! FACT: According to the Guardian, Plastic bags may take up to 1,000 years to decompose. FACT: Keeping your vehicle in tune can reduce fuel consumption by up to 15% and smog causing emissions by even more. FACT: 10 seconds of idling uses more fuel than restarting the engine! In 10 minuntes the average car will burn 300 ml of fuel - almost 1/2 of a Liter. FACT: One faucet drip can waste 250 gallons of water a month, which translates to 3,000 gallons of wasted water annually. FACT: Cities account for 2% of the world's land mass, but produce up to 75% of worldwide Greenhouse Gas Emissions. FACT: Your dryer is responsible for nearly 7% of an average Ontario home's electricity use, that creates 163kg of CO₂ per year. FACT: For every kilogram of coal burned, three kilograms of greenhouse gases (mostly carbon dioxide) enter the atmosphere. FACT: Americans spent more money last year on bottled water than on iPods or movie tickets - $15 billion! FACT: The average cost of eight glasses of water from your faucet every day would cost around 49 cents a year. The same amount of bottled water would cost around $1,400. FACT: Air drying your dishes could save 15%-50% of dishwasher energy usage! FACT: Turning the brightness on your monitor down 10% can reduce 20% of the monitor's energy use! FACT: A solar hot water heater can save up to 40% of your hot water energy needs. In a typical home, that can equal 12% of your total electricity needs. FACT: Using solar chargers for all your small home appliances, could save up to 190 kg of CO₂ for an average home in Ontario. FACT: A typical 200 unit building in Toronto is responsible for as much as 1,200 tons of greenhouse gases a year. FACT: An average first-class passenger on a domestic flight is responsible for generating twice as much carbon as someone seated in coach. FACT: Compared with flying coach, a couple traveling on a bus will cut their trip's carbon dioxide emissions 55 to 75 percent, depending on the distance traveled. FACT: The environmental cost of purchasing a new computer is est. 300 kg of fossil fuel equivalent, 20 kg of chemicals and 1500 liters of fresh water. FACT: 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5°C. FACT: 15500 liters of water go into the production of one kg of beef. FACT: Americans use 2,500,000 plastic bottles every hour! Most of them are thrown away! FACT: In the 45 seconds it takes you to read this recycling fact, there will have been over 250,000 of aluminum cans produced. FACT: If every single newspaper was recycled after we read them, we would be able to save 25 million trees per year! FACT: Each year, the average American throws away 68 pounds of clothing. Think: Reduce, Reuse and Recycle instead. FACT: Plastic bags kill over 100,000 birds, whales, seals, and turtles every year. Use reusable bags and recycle to protect the environment! FACT: Americans throw away 18 billion disposable diapers a year. Laid end to end this would stretch to the moon and back seven times! FACT: Flying fruit and vegetables across the world needs up to 4 Liters of fuel for each kilogram. FACT: When you purchase music digitally, you emit up to 80% less CO₂, than buying a CD at retail store! FACT: One inch of rain on a 1,000 square foot roof is 623 gallons of water! Try and re-use rain water for gardening, washing your car or garage, etc. FACT: Manufacturing a disposable battery cell can take 50 times more energy than it produces and 13,500 tons of them are dumped every year. FACT: Recycled paper generates 95% less air pollution. Each ton of recycled paper can save 60 pounds of air pollution, 17 trees or 7,000 gallons of water. FACT: Recycling one glass jar can save enough energy to light a 15 watt energy efficient lightbulb for 24 hours. FACT: Looking to cool down? A 60-watt ceiling fan is responsible for up to 5 kg of CO₂ per month, while an air conditioner is responsible for up to 105 kg! FACT: Reducing fuel consumption by ten tanks a year can reduce your personal greenhouse gas emissions by almost one tonne. FACT: If left on 24x7 for a year, a computer consumes 1,270 kW hours of electricity, releasing 1,715 lbs of CO₂ into the atmosphere and equals to driving 1,886 miles in an average car! FACT: If left on 24x7 for a year, a computer consumes 1,270 kW hours of electricity, releasing 1,715 lbs of CO₂ into the atmosphere and equals to driving 1,886 miles in an average car! FACT: One 6-12 hour flight emits around 1.8 tons of CO₂. Try to avoid flying or if you have to, offset your emissions! FACT: A TV with the Energy Star label is up to 30% more energy efficient than one without. FACT: It takes about 40 L of water to produce one SLICE of wheat bread. If the bread is consumed with one slice of cheese, it requires 90 L of water. That's about 130 L of water, just to make your average cheese sandwich! FACT: An average glass of red wine requires 120 L of water. Most of it is used during the growing process for the grapes. FACT: 1 year of ice cream purchases in the EU, or 3 months of what Americans spend on pets is what it would cost to get all the unschooled children in the world to school. FACT: In Copenhagen 40 percent of the population goes to work by bike. FACT: One standard size piece of paper requires 10 L of water to make. On top of the volumetric water cost is the water pollution caused during manufacturing. FACT: Drinking an average 200 mL glass of milk costs 200 L of water. Drinking a plain glass of water requires little more than the water itself. FACT: By 2030 only 10% of the world's forests will be remaining at the current rate of cutting! Another 10% will be in a degraded state! FACT: Nearly 99% of Norway's energy is hydro power and only 0.4% is fossil fuel power! FACT: A car traveling at 80 km/h uses half of its fuel to overcome wind resistance! FACT: One tree in one day produces enough oxygen for four people in one day.